Key Points
- U.S. and Canadian travelers are diverging: U.S. trips to Europe fell about 1% from a record 2025 in July, while Canadian travel to the U.S. fell more than 23% and Canadian trips to Europe grew.
- The calendar is moving faster than the map. September already drew more U.S. arrivals to Europe than August last year, but Aer Lingus expects the big gateway cities to keep most transatlantic capacity through 2030.
- Discovery and distribution are both unsettled. More than half of travelers use AI in planning against roughly a quarter of destinations with a published AI strategy, and Certares’ $2.3 billion rail bet runs into rail tickets that agents and OTAs can barely sell.
Summary
The Skift Transatlantic Summit found North American demand for Europe holding up while becoming more selective and more fragmented. U.S. trips to Europe are coming off a record 2025 and fell only about 1% from that peak in July, according to Skift Advisory’s Iva Kutle Škrlec, while Canadian travel to the U.S. dropped more than 23% and Canadian trips to Europe grew. Mastercard’s Ailish Campbell said 92% of U.S. consumers plan to spend the same or more on travel than a year ago, but are weighing value for money against thinner discretionary income. Tourism Ireland’s Alice Mansergh reported North American volume up 5% and spending up 10%, with a third of surveyed consumers saying conditions feel too uncertain and more than half wanting flexible or refundable bookings. Policy friction is now an operating issue: the European Commission’s Maja Bakran Marcich said biometric entry/exit queues “are here to stay,” and Certares founder Greg O’Hara said European numbers into the U.S. have collapsed over the past two years. Demand is shifting into shoulder months faster than it is shifting away from gateway cities — Aer Lingus’s Reid Moody expects the big cities to hold most transatlantic capacity through 2030, while Kutle Škrlec noted September outdrew August for U.S. arrivals to Europe last year. AI is reshaping discovery, with Sojern’s Sylvia Weiler saying more than half of travelers use AI in planning while about a quarter of destinations have a published AI strategy. And dispersal runs into distribution: O’Hara said Certares has committed about $2.3 billion to European and UK high-speed rail, yet selling a train ticket through an agent or OTA is “almost impossible.”
Source: skift.com
