Last week, we looked at how little the early goalie standings tell you. Skaters aren’t much easier to predict, but power-play time offers a useful clue. Especially for defensemen.
How many of the top 25 (by position) at this point of the season were still top-25 at the end:
2025-26: 10 forwards, nine defenders, 10 goalies
2024-25: 11 forwards, 11 defenders, 15 goalies
2023-24: 13 forwards, 16 defenders, 15 goalies
2022-23: 14 forwards, 12 defenders, 16 goalies
2021-22: 10 forwards, 10 defenders, 17 goalies
2020-21: 11 forwards, 13 defenders, 13 goalies
What the players who maintained their value averaged, compared with the ones who fell out (six-season averages):
Forwards who stayed: 4:00 PP TOI/GP, 0.59 blocks and 1.05 hits per game
Forwards who fell out: 3:21 PP TOI/GP, 0.61 blocks and 1.01 hits per game
Defenders who stayed: 2:48 PP TOI/GP, 2.06 blocks and 1.33 hits per game
Defenders who fell out: 1:58 PP TOI/GP, 2.05 blocks and 1.30 hits per game
Hits and blocks didn’t separate them. Power-play time did, especially on the blue line. That puts these early leaders among defenders on watch:
MacKenzie WeegarD, Utah Mammoth (available in 2.1% of ESPN leagues): fourth among defenders, 0:10 PP TOI/GP
Vladislav GavrikovD, New York Rangers (available in 32.3%): sixth among defenders, 0:04 PP TOI/GP
Travis SanheimD, Philadelphia Flyers (available in 30.8%): 10th among defenders, 0:14 PP TOI/GP
Declan CarlileD, Pittsburgh Penguins (available in 57.5%): 12th among defenders, no PP time
Nick SeelerD, Philadelphia Flyers (available in 84.6%): 16th among defenders, no PP time
Tyler KlevenD, Ottawa Senators (available in 76.9%): 20th among defenders, 0:03 PP TOI/GP
Two weeks ago, this column called Gavrikov the easiest add of the early hits-and-blocks crowd. He has been worth it so far, but history says that kind of start rarely lasts without power-play time. Enjoy the blocks while they’re paying off, just don’t count on him staying sixth.
Among forwards, the stars clear the bar on talent alone. Connor McDavid averages 3:16 on the power play, and nobody is trading him. The ones to worry about are the passengers. Vasily Podkolzin ranks 11th among forwards, largely by riding with McDavid and Leon Draisaitland he gets 3:07 on the power play after finishing 107th last season. Artturi Lehkonen is 24th with just 1:48. If someone in your league is valuing their starts, this is the time to trade them away.
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Goalie notes
Vegas Golden Knights in 10 games (four last week):
Carter Hart (crease share season/week: 59.4%/49.6%, fantasy points season/week: 16.6/4.4, 24.5% available)
Adin Hill (crease share season/week: 40.6%/50.4%, fantasy points season/week: 15.2/9.4, 82.7% available)
Hill is 4-0-0 with good starts (2.4 fantasy points or more) in three of four and ranks 10th in FPP60 (fantasy points per 60 minutes), and he and Hart have strictly alternated over the past four games. Vegas ranks fourth in team goalie fantasy points, and Hill is available in 83% of leagues, which makes him a cheap way into one of the league’s best creases.
San Jose Sharks in nine games (three last week):
Yaroslav Askarov (crease share season/week: 65.3%/30.8%, fantasy points season/week: -7.8/-6.0, 85.9% available)
Alex Nedeljkovic (crease share season/week: 34.7%/69.2%, fantasy points season/week: 11.0/6.2, 94.9% available)
Nedeljkovic took two of three starts last week and ranks 12th in FPP60, while Askarov ranks 52nd and hasn’t delivered a good start in his past three. The Sharks play five times in the next 10 days, and Nedeljkovic is available in 95% of leagues.
Detroit Red Wings in eight games (three last week):
John Gibson (crease share season/week: 69.0%/67.6%, fantasy points season/week: -3.4/1.6, 41.9% available)
Daniil Tarasov (crease share season/week: 31.0%/32.4%, fantasy points season/week: 15.0/5.4, 94.1% available)
Last week, Tarasov was a speculative add. Two good starts in two tries later, he leads all goalies in FPP60, and the Red Wings have strictly alternated over the past four games. Calgary (30th in scoring) and Chicago (29th) are both on the schedule over the next 10 days.
Seattle Kraken in nine games (three last week):
Joey Daccord (crease share season/week: 51.1%/31.5%, fantasy points season/week: 2.8/-10.2, 54.0% available)
Philipp Grubauer (crease share season/week: 48.9%/68.5%, fantasy points season/week: 9.0/4.0, 94.6% available)
Daccord’s soft schedule didn’t save him. He lost 10.2 fantasy points last week, and Grubauer took two of three starts. Grubauer now has the better save percentage (.909 to .882) and FPP60 rank (24th to 35th), and with all four of Seattle’s next games at home, he’s the better bet in a true timeshare.
Edmonton Oilers in eight games (three last week):
Devon Levi (crease share season/week: 62.1%/66.2%, fantasy points season/week: 12.4/7.8, 67.6% available)
Tristan Jarry (crease share season/week: 37.9%/33.8%, fantasy points season/week: 3.4/5.2, 93.3% available)
Levi is 4-1-0 with good starts in three of five, and his rostership has more than doubled in a week, yet he’s still available in 68% of leagues. The Oilers’ next five games are all at home, including Detroit (27th in scoring) and Calgary (30th), though Jarry has taken two of the past four starts.
Follow-ups from last week:
Dylan GarandG, New York Rangers (available in 41.5%): Five straight starts and good starts in five of six overall. The Rangers play only three times in the next 10 days, but he shouldn’t be on any waiver wire.
Pyotr KochetkovG, Carolina Hurricanes (available in 45.0%): Now 5-0-0, and his rostership has more than doubled. Bussi ranks 41st in FPP60.
Jacob FowlerG, Montreal Canadiens (available in 75.9%): Took 69% of the crease last week, while Dobes has fallen to 61st in fantasy points. Sam Montembeault is getting close to his projected return, so watch the crease.
Anthony StolarzG, Toronto Maple Leafs (available in 89.8%): Last week’s pitch didn’t pay off. Low usage and rough outings mean he’s no longer worth a roster spot.
Power-play pickups
League average for a five-man unit this season is 3.48 shot attempts per two minutes.
Ivar StenbergLW, San Jose Sharks (available in 61.0%): Stenberg already has five power-play points, and the top unit he shares with Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, Alex Wennberg and Dmitry Orlov has scored four goals in 13:51 together while generating 4.19 shot attempts per two minutes. He’s logging 5:36 a night on the advantage.
Neal PionkD, Winnipeg Jets (available in 64.5%): Pionk has quarterbacked the Jets’ top unit in all three of their past games, taking 71% of the team’s power-play time, and his 2.12 FPPG is the best of any defender on this list. He has almost two weeks of runway left while Josh Morrissey is sidelined with a wrist injury.
Chandler StephensonC, Seattle Kraken (available in 91.6%): Two weeks ago, we doubted the Kraken’s kids would keep the top unit. They didn’t: Stephenson, Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann, Bobby McMann and Vince Dunn are back on it, and the group has scored four times in 16:30. Stephenson has two power-play points in his past three games.
Morgan FrostC, Calgary Flames (available in 94.3%): The Flames’ original top unit is back together after a brief swap, and Frost has two power-play points in his past three games with a 1.84 FPPG. Calgary plays twice this week and four times next week.
Ryan LeonardRW, Washington Capitals (available in 65.9%): Leonard has held a top-unit spot alongside Alex Ovechkin for three straight games, playing 57 percent of the Capitals’ power-play time, and he’s at 1.91 FPPG.
Follow-ups from earlier columns:
Maxim ShabanovRW, Minnesota Wild (available in 93.3%): Still on a top unit that has scored five times in 28:34, and the Wild play four games this week.
Brayden SchennC/LW, New York Islanders (available in 77.2%): The Islanders’ top unit has cooled since Simon Holmstrom replaced Matthias Maccelliand Schenn has no power-play points in his past three games. Hold off.
Kasperi KapanenRW, Edmonton Oilers (available in 94.8%): Zach Hyman is back on the top unit, and Kapanen is off it. That was quick.
Kent JohnsonLW/RW, Columbus Blue Jackets (available in 84.6%): Columbus has restored its original top unit, and Johnson is at 1.80 FPPG.
Dmitry Orlov, D, San Jose Sharks (available in 88.1%): Orlov has taken over Luca Cagnoni‘s quarterback spot on the Sharks’ top unit.
Droppables
Same caution as last week: this list flags rostered players whose production has lagged, and it still catches plenty of stars. Sidney Crosby (1.4 FPPG), Wyatt Johnston (1.4), Dylan Larkin (1.5), Artemi Panarin (1.7), Adrian Kempe (1.7), Mark Scheifele (1.7), Brayden Point (1.3) and Lucas Raymond (1.2) all qualify. All of them are on their team’s top power-play unit, and none of them is going anywhere.
But as this week’s intro showed, power-play time is what separates the players who hold their value from the ones who fade. These three have lost it:
Noah DobsonD, Montreal Canadiens (rostered in 93.5%): Dobson is logging 21:33 a night but isn’t on either power-play unit, because Lane Hutson runs both. That’s a problem for a defender whose fantasy value has always leaned on the man advantage, and at 1.3 FPPG he’s the clearest drop candidate on this list in standard leagues.
Dylan CozensC/RW, Ottawa Senators (rostered in 76.1%): Claude Giroux took Cozens’ spot on the top power-play unit Friday, and Cozens was already at just 1.1 FPPG. He’s movable in shallow leagues.
Morgan RiellyD, Toronto Maple Leafs (rostered in 78.2%): Darren Raddysh has the top-unit quarterback job, and Rielly has been relegated to the second unit. At 1.2 FPPG, there are better defenders on most waiver wires, including a couple in this week’s power-play section.
On notice:
Vincent TrocheckC, Utah Mammoth (rostered in 87.6%): 16:18 a night, second power-play unit, 1.3 FPPG.
Alex Ovechkin, LW/RW, Washington Capitals (rostered in 88.9%): Still on the top power-play unit, but his 13:56 a night is the lowest ice time on this list, and he’s at 1.0 FPPG.
Follow-ups from last week:
Sam Bennett has climbed from 1.05 FPPG to 1.6. Keep him.
John Tavares could be stashed, but if you’re facing tough decisions with limited IR space, you can also let him go. He’s expected out until almost December.
Source: www.espn.com
