Technological competition between the United States and China is a defining feature of contemporary strategic rivalry and will shape the future distribution of economic and geopolitical power. When considering this competition, the key question is not only, “Which country leads in technological innovation?” but also, “Which country is better able to diffuse technological advances across its economy and convert them into sustained productivity gains?” In this report, we examine the two countries’ potential technological diffusion capacity to understand the broader trajectory of U.S.-China competition.
To measure diffusion capacity, the authors develop an analytical framework comprising three components of national diffusion capacity: actors, linkagesand contextual factors. They then populate the framework using proxies that serve as metrics for each component. Finally, the authors conduct a country-level comparative assessment based on these metrics. They explore each metric through two dimensions of technology diffusion: production diffusionwhich refers to the process through which a new technology spreads in the production and supply side of an economy, and adoption diffusionwhich describes the spread of technology on the demand and use side of the economy.
This research was independently initiated and conducted within the China Research Center within the RAND Global and Emerging Risks division using a gift from philanthropist Michael Tang, as well as gifts from other RAND supporters and income from operations.
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