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U.S. September 2026 jobs report: payrolls miss forecasts badly
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U.S. September 2026 jobs report: payrolls miss forecasts badly

The U.S. economy added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, well below analyst expectations and below the prior 12-month average monthly gain of 45,000. Economists had forecast a gain of 84,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, according to CNBC and The Wall Street Journal. The jobless […]

The U.S. economy added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, well below analyst expectations and below the prior 12-month average monthly gain of 45,000.

Economists had forecast a gain of 84,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, according to CNBC and The Wall Street Journal. The jobless rate rose to 4.2%, leaving 7.1 million people counted as unemployed.

The September figure was accompanied by downward revisions to prior months. July payrolls were revised to a loss of 10,000 from a previously reported gain of 21,000, and August was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000. Taken together, the two revisions reduced the previously reported employment count by 60,000 jobs.

Health care led job gains in September, adding 17,000 positions, though that was below the sector’s 12-month average monthly gain of 33,000, according to the BLS. Construction added 11,000 jobs, roughly in line with its recent monthly average, while manufacturing gained 9,000. Financial activities shed 7,000 jobs, continuing a broader decline that has seen the industry lose 129,000 positions since a peak in May 2025.

Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm payroll employees rose 5 cents, or 0.1%, to $37.81 in September. Over the past 12 months, wages are up 3.0%. The average workweek held steady at 34.4 hours.

The September report marks a sharp reversal from August, when the economy added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations of 53,000 in what was the strongest monthly gain since March. That report had been read as a sign of labor market resilience and was expected to keep the Federal Reserve focused on inflation. Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls report had offered a more optimistic preview, with private employers adding 90,000 jobs in September, above the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 68,000.

Financial markets moved quickly in response to Friday’s report: stock futures climbed and Treasury yields retreated, as investors took the disappointing data as a signal that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady at its October meeting. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in three years at its September meeting, according to the Journal.

Source: finance.yahoo.com

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