At the confluence of affordability, foreign conflict, immigration, climate policy and civil rights, the 2026 midterm elections will highlight a divided electorate weighed down by domestic and global pressures.
Experts across the nation are hard at work trying to understand voter motivations ahead of Nov. 3. Among them is Samara Klar, Melody S. Robidoux Foundation Fund Professor of Political Science at the University of Arizona College of Social and Behavioral Sciences. Her work focuses on personal identity and how social context shapes political attitudes and behavior.
She teaches both undergraduate and graduate political science, though her research does not focus on politicians or legislative action in the halls of Congress. Instead, Klar studies voters and their motivations: What do people think about politics, and why do they choose to vote? Why do they support one party over another, and why do they often view other people through a political lens?
Klar spoke with University of Arizona News to discuss the key themes and trends poised for prominence in the 2026 midterm elections, and how Arizona became a bellwether state.
What are the key issues influencing public discourse and political campaigns in this election?
I think what will motivate turnout in these midterms are deeply personal issues: Can you afford to pay your rent? Can you afford groceries? Are you able to fill up your gas? These are things that really affect people’s lives. While two different people won’t be concerned about the exact same priorities, there are really important issues motivating voters to support candidates that best represent them. The economy is top of mind right now, because a lot of people are dealing with cost-of-living issues, and I think both parties will have to explain to voters how they are going to make life more affordable over the next couple of years.
Beyond the economy, immigration remains a very important issue, and water policy is important to a lot of voters throughout the Southwest. Overall, I think there are a lot of issues from the 2024 election that haven’t necessarily been resolved yet, and there are a lot of voters dissatisfied with how things have gone over the last two years.
Both Democrats and Republicans know that the balance of power is really tenuous right now, and there are some really competitive races in this election. I think that reflects the general competitiveness of the political landscape right now. When you think about how close things are in the House and Senate, that will drive a lot of voter turnout.
What notable realignments have you observed among voting demographics since the 2024 election?
We saw almost every key voting demographic move a little toward the Republican Party in 2024, though I think Republicans have lost a little bit of their momentum since then. There are questions as to whether shifts like Latino voters moving towards the Republican Party will become long term trends, though I think we may see people move back towards the center in 2026.
We talk a lot in American politics about something called the thermostatic model of public opinion. Imagine the thermostat in your house: When it gets too hot, things get a little cooler. When it gets too cold, the house warms up. When we’re talking about political ideology, it’s the idea that when the government becomes more conservative, the public starts to want something more liberal, and vice versa. We have seen this thermostatic trend take place over the course of contemporary political history, and I would expect to see the same pattern in 2026. There’s going to be a little bit of a correction back toward the mean, whereas in 2024 things moved a little more to the right.
Why is Arizona a key part of the election story this year?
Arizona is a key swing state, with several important congressional districts that make a big difference in the national landscape, as well as some really important Senate races.
Arizona also once had a reputation for being a reliably red state. But if you look at the voting history, Republican presidential candidates often only won by five to eight percentage points. Those are not big margins, which means there was always potential for Arizona to move towards the middle.
We’ve seen that pattern take place over the last 10 years. Today, Arizona has a Democratic governor, two senators, an attorney general, secretary of state, and several Democratic mayors. That is especially interesting when you look at Arizona’s electorate: About 35% of voters are registered Republican, and about 29% Democrat. The large remaining gap is presumably independent. A state with so much Democratic leadership and a plurality of Republican voters is really fascinating.
The Democrats who win in Arizona have also consistently been moderate. They campaign as moderates. Often, they identify themselves as centrist or nonpartisan, and they don’t always align themselves closely with the national party. Whereas Republican candidates in Arizona often align themselves with the more extreme right.
What we’re seeing in Arizona is that the electorate wants centrist candidates, and that centrist candidates win. Now, the question is will the Republicans to start running more moderate candidates?
Source: news.arizona.edu
