Did we overreact to the Raiders’ 3-0 start? To the Packers’ rough beginning? To Drake Maye‘s early-season struggles? Almost assuredly, yes.
But that’s OK. Early-season overreactions are like that. We jump in headfirst with either zero or minimal knowledge about who these teams are or what they’re going to turn out to be, make our guesses and watch to see how we did every week as evidence piles up.
Even now, five weeks in, the season is still a baby. We have some better ideas about how things might go. The Eagles look as if they could be in real trouble, given three straight tough losses and their ever-deepening roster holes. The Vikings might need to be taken more seriously if their offense is going to come around; the Cowboys might not.
But everything we say here today could easily look silly five weeks from now. But that is part of the fun and is certainly not going to stand in the way of the Week 5 Overreactions column, where we look at five potential takeaways and judge them as legitimate stances or irrational exaggerations. Plus, we hit a few fantasy football overreactions at the bottom.
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NFC East winner will be below .500?
Titans looking for another QB in 2027?
Jaguars going to their first Super Bowl?
Bailey favorite for DROY?
NFC West has three best NFC teams?
Fantasy overreactions
The NFC East winner will have a losing record this season
The week opened with the Cowboys laying a major egg at home on Thursday against the previously winless Buccaneers to drop to 2-3. Sunday morning opened with Philadelphia giving the Jaguars everything they had but still losing a brutal heartbreaker in London to drop to 2-3. Then came a Giants-Commanders game no one wanted to win. The Giants fumbled on a promising drive late in overtime. Then Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels brain-locked on the final play of overtime, seeming to forget his team had no timeouts and watching the clock run out even though the Commanders were in field goal range.
That left the Commanders at 1-3-1 and the Giants in first place at 3-1-1 but down to their second-string quarterback for the rest of the season. The Giants have beaten the Cowboys and tied with the Commanders. Washington has lost to Dallas and Philadelphia and tied the Giants. The whole thing is a mess. And frankly, none of these teams looks very good.
1:26
Giants, Commanders botch late-game sequences as game ends in tie
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
This might be disrespectful to the 3-1-1 Giants, and I apologize if it is. But not having quarterback Jaxson Dart or star edge rusher Brian Burns for the rest of the season is going to be tough to overcome. Their schedule still includes trips to Houston, Philly, Seattle and Detroit, along with home games against the Jaguars and the 49ers.
The Cowboys’ defense looks no better than it did last season. Dallas has December road games against the Seahawks and the Rams and home games against the Jaguars and the 49ers. The Eagles are without their top three running backs and are also missing four of their Week 1 starting offensive linemen, and their final four games of the season include a home contest versus Seattle and a game at San Francisco. The Commanders — well, after Sunday, I think we can just say we aren’t going to give them much of a shot.
We do love when the NFC East is a big, jumbled, confusing mess, and that’s exactly what it is. But it’s tough to look at any of these teams and feel good about their chances of them winning more games than they’ll lose.
The Titans are going to be looking for a quarterback again in next year’s draft
Tennessee selected Cam Ward with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. It fired coach Brian Callahan during Ward’s rookie season and replaced him this offseason with Robert Saleh, who brought Brian Daboll to be offensive coordinator. It’s safe to say things haven’t worked the way the Titans had hoped just yet.
Tennessee is 0-5 after Sunday’s listless 26-3 loss to the previously winless Texans. Through five games, Ward has completed 63.2% of his passes, with three touchdowns and three interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times. His QBR on Sunday was a season-low 12.8. Tennessee had high hopes after Ward finished last season strong, but he has not made progress, and Saleh was fielding questions about Ward’s status as the team’s starting quarterback after Sunday’s outing. Saleh said Ward was safe. But there’s a lot of season left, and the Titans would surely like to see some progress soon.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
This was a close one, but I’m still going to give Ward and Daboll a chance to show more than they have. Ward wasn’t a controversial No. 1 pick. Many people around the league believed at the time (and entering this season) that he had the tools and the makeup to be a franchise quarterback. He has had five lousy games in a new system, and I understand feeling discouraged. But the Titans have no reason to bench Ward. He gets 12 more games to show he can still be the guy they believed him to be when they drafted him. That’s a lot of games. If you believed in Ward two months ago, it’s too soon to give up.
The Jaguars are going to the Super Bowl
It might have taken a late-game miracle, but Jacksonville beat the Eagles on Sunday in London to improve to 4-1. Dating to the middle of last season, Jacksonville has won 13 of 16. The Jaguars been good and consistent on both sides of the ball this season, and the success quarterback Trevor Lawrence has had under coach Liam Coen appears sustainable.
Jacksonville has given Lawrence a wide receiver corps that fits his strengths. The Jags are still working on the run game, but it shows promise. They play in the AFC South, where the second-place team is the 2-3 Colts. Only four of the Jags’ remaining 12 games are against teams that currently have winning records. Jacksonville is positioned to grab the top seed in the AFC playoffs if things keep going the way they have to start the campaign.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Chiefs could still have something to say about this. The Bills have looked good. The Patriots are rounding into form in a big way. The AFC North is going to produce at least one tough playoff team. I guess the Broncos could still make some noise. So, there are potential contenders in the AFC, for sure.
But honestly, none of them has played better than Jacksonville since Week 9 last season. The public might not be inclined to take the Jaguars seriously as a contender, since they rarely have been throughout their three-decade-plus history. But the Jaguars use that skepticism as a chip on their shoulder. And while they should have lost Sunday, the teams that go all the way are the ones that figure out how to win games they should lose during the season. So, don’t ignore what the Jaguars are doing; they’re sticking around.
0:48
Jags’ big return sets up winning 57-yard FG to stun Eagles as time expires
David Bailey will be the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Hey, the Jets beat the Browns 17-12 on Sunday. It was kind of gross, but wasn’t that what you were expecting? Bailey, the No. 2 pick in April’s draft, had three sacks. He now has five on the season, putting him on pace for 17. And sure, New York faced this rickety version of Deshaun Watson and a Browns offense full of rookies, but that offense certainly wasn’t a pushover entering Sunday’s game. It was a strong defensive effort by the Jets, led by their star rookie. And now, New York is 2-3 ahead of a game at New England next week.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Generally, the person who wins this award is a guy who gets a lot of sacks or a lot of interceptions. And I’m on the record in saying this Jets team is going to be OK this season; if so, that also will help Bailey’s case. While I doubt the Jets will make the playoffs, I wouldn’t be stunned if they did.
New York’s offense has mostly looked good, and the defense has shown it can play at a high level. Both need more consistency. But if the Jets hang around and continue to be a tough team to play while Bailey keeps getting sacks, then yeah, he’ll be in strong position to win this award. He was the second pick in the draft, after all. A guy with that type of draft stature should almost always be in the Rookie of the Year running.
The three best teams in the NFC are all in the same division — again
The Seahawks and the 49ers spent Sunday afternoon throwing haymakers at each other by exchanging turnovers, touchdowns and big plays on both sides of the ball. In the end, San Francisco held on by inches (literally) when Cooper Coup was ruled just short of a first down on a late fourth-and-10 play that could have extended a potential game-tying or game-winning drive for Seattle. The 49ers are 5-0 after the 32-29 victorywith wins against each of the other three teams in the NFC West. The defending Super Bowl champs are 3-2.
Last season, the three best teams in the NFC were the Seahawks, the 49ers and the Rams, all in the NFC West. Each won at least 12 games in the regular season. The Niners got knocked out in the second round of the playoffs by the Seahawks, who then beat the Rams in the NFC Championship Game and went on to win the Super Bowl. These three monster teams can only be killed by each other, and the fact that Seahawks-Niners went down to the wire indicates that’s still true, at least for those two.
0:35
Cooper Kupp is ruled short on controversial final play for Seahawks
It’s important to note that the 49ers waxed the Rams in their opener in Australia and that, for all of its preseason hype, Los Angeles hasn’t really looked the part just yet. But if the Rams beat the visiting Bills on “Monday Night Football,” game on.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
This is only because I’m still not as sold on the Rams as the rest of the world was in August, before we’d seen them play. I think they’re going to be good, but I also think they have their share of very real problems. The Seahawks and the 49ers have played well enough this season to make this statement true for the second year in a row, but the Rams haven’t joined them — yet. But I will say I’m having a hard time picking a team from the NFC’s other three divisions that belongs in this conversation.
Quick-hitter fantasy overreactions
Jayden Daniels is still a top-five fantasy QB when healthy. NOT AN OVERREACTION. As long as one of your scoring categories isn’t “Knowing when to spike the ball and stop the clock in overtime.”
Daniel Jones can be dropped from your roster. NOT AN OVERREACTION. Honestly, this applies to superflex formats too. What’s Jones offering at this point? He had no touchdown passes and 4 rushing yards Sunday.
Trade Isaiah Likely right now, while he’s at peak value. OVERREACTION. I think this is real, you guys. He was a major part of the Giants’ offensive plans going into the season, and his target share tells us that hasn’t changed with Jameis Winston back there instead of Jaxson Dart.
You must pick up DeMario Douglas in your league this week if he’s available. OVERREACTION. Patriots WRs are going to be game-specific, at least while A.J. Brown is out. New England liked Douglas’ matchup against the Raiders’ defense Sunday, and it was right. That doesn’t mean Douglas will repeat this against the Jets next week.
Parker Washington is a fantasy WR1. NOT AN OVERREACTION. I don’t know what you’re waiting for, but if you don’t buy into this yet, you never will. He’s the WR1 in Jacksonville, where the offense is humming.
Source: www.espn.com
