Fourth, European allies and NATO should expand their political and military responses, especially given the fear that Russia might engineer a broader conventional attack or crisis. This means more exercises, such as those that took place in August 2026 in Poland and the Baltic states, as well as more signaling, for example through intelligence flights close to Kaliningrad. European and NATO leaders need to convey that these attacks are taken seriously at the political level. For example, after undersea cables in the Baltic Sea were cut, NATO established the Baltic Sentry maritime vigilance initiative in early 2025 and the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force was activated for the first time in November 2023. Similar steps need to follow. To prevent escalation risks, exercises and flights should also be clearly labeled as a response to Russian escalation, a response that can be toned down if Russia tones down its activities, too.
Source: www.cfr.org
