When you think of “crime,” what comes to mind? For most of us, it’s burglars, pickpockets, and car thieves. The biggest and fastest-growing threats, however, are digital.
Between 2020 and 2025, digital crime losses reported to the FBI rose fivefold to USD 20.9 billion, while the estimated number of US property crimes fell nearly 20%.2
Crimefighters have responded aggressively. Working with banks, the FBI’s Financial Fraud Kill Chain froze a record USD 679 million in 2025, up 21% from 2024. Despite often lacking dedicated cybercrime units, many US state and local agencies are also acting: Virginia’s Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office seized USD 1.4 million stolen in a cryptocurrency investment scam in 2025.3
Yet crime is outpacing the response. Gallup estimates US adults lost USD 68 billion to scams in 2025.4 We figure that US law enforcement freezes, recovers, or seizes only 2–4% of those losses, annually.5
This is the capacity gap: the difference between the crime a society experiences and what law enforcement has the capacity to investigate or prevent.
The capacity gap does not reflect a failure of law enforcement. The problem is structural.
At its core, the capacity gap exists because of the advantage criminals have in speed, cost, and scale. The gap has been growing for years, and AI is accelerating it:
- Speed: 130 seconds vs. 576 days. A study found AI voice agents could carry out common phone scams in 130 seconds; the median US federal fraud case takes 576 days to reach a charging decision.6
- Cost: 24 to 1. Our illustrative model estimates a scam compound’s cost at roughly USD 6,000 per victim, compared with roughly USD 145,000 in aggregate costs per fraud charge.7
- Scale: 0.45% of recorded frauds charged. Of 1.23 million frauds recorded in England and Wales in the year ending March 2025, about 1 in 24 reached a police force for investigation and 1 in 220 led to a charge.8
A foundational problem is that criminals and law enforcement operate under different constraints. Criminals adopt new technology the moment it’s available, work from any country, and answer to no one. In their pursuit of money, they act with abandon and without concern for collateral damage. Law enforcement, on the other hand, must operate within defined jurisdictions, secure funding and approval before adopting new technology, and build cases that can withstand scrutiny in court.
The capacity gap threatens public safety, and hiring or budget increases alone cannot close it. Law enforcement needs the tools to keep pace with criminals while upholding the principles they’re duty-bound to protect.
Source: www.trmlabs.com
