Brazil’s election could shift its ties with the U.S. and China : NPR

Brazil is a global supplier of oil, soybeans and critical minerals. Americas Quarterly editor in chief Brian Winter explains how Brazil’s presidential election could impact trade with the U.S. and China.

Transcript

CARRIE KAHN, BYLINE: Joining us now is Brian Winter. He’s the editor in chief of Americas Quarterly. He’s a seasoned analyst of Latin American politics, who lived in Brazil for many, many years. Thanks so much for coming on with us.

BRIAN WINTER: Thanks for having me.

KAHN: Let’s start with Brazil’s relationship with the U.S. President Trump has made it clear that he sees Brazil as strategically important. I think you described Brazil as Trump’s biggest prize. Why does this Brazilian election matter so much to Washington?

WINTER: Over the last two years or so, we’ve seen numerous countries in Latin America swing to the right. In fact, of the last 16 elections in the region, 13 have been won by right or center-right candidates. And of course, Brazil is Latin America’s biggest country, and President Trump has gotten in the middle of some of these elections, including Brazil’s. He has some personal ties with the Bolsonaro family. So this is the big prize for President Trump. He’s eager to see Brazil swing right.

KAHN: But when you say he’s eager to see it, what would he do with a right-wing government in Brazil now?

WINTER: You know, this is the White House that has been most focused on Latin America in 40 years – the involvement in the border with Mexico, the capture of Nicolás Maduro earlier this year, the financial bailout of Javier Milei’s Argentina last year, among other examples. The Trump administration believes that Latin America is absolutely key to a couple of issues, including stopping irregular immigration and reducing the flow of drugs into the United States.

And of course, it’s also true that President Trump likes having other leaders around the world who think the same way that he does and who will join at meetings like CPAC and other meetings designed to sort of show that his brand of right-wing politics is on the up and up throughout the world.

KAHN: Yet, he hasn’t come out and publicly outright endorsed Bolsonaro. Why do you think that’s so? If this is his big prize, why not just come out and say it?

WINTER: President Trump’s story with Brazil over the last year or so has been, frankly, a bit of a telenovela. It’s true, as you know, that President Trump announced these big tariffs on Brazil in July of 2025. The tariffs ended up damaging the U.S. economy, but they also helped President Lula and probably politically damaged the Bolsonaro family.

President Trump may also be hedging his bets a bit because it’s also true that it’s the world’s second-biggest reserves of rare Earths. And there are other people in the U.S. government who are thinking less about ideology and trying to be more pragmatic, saying things like, look, this is a big, important country, and it’s better if we have a more institutional relationship rather than trying to get very involved in this election.

KAHN: Let’s look at the economics of this now, too, given Brazil’s size. You know, it’s the largest economy in Latin America. It’s a member of the G20, with GDP greater than Canada or Mexico. But the economy has been faltering, and that’s big on voters’ minds.

WINTER: There are so many parallels with the United States. While the headline numbers for the Brazilian economy are pretty good – GDP is growing at a good pace, unemployment’s at a historic low – if you talk to Brazilians and you look at the polls, people are actually pretty upset about the way things are going. They feel like their salary doesn’t go as far. Affordability is a huge issue.

KAHN: Yeah. And I’m just curious – you know, China is Brazil’s other largest trading partner. Could a Bolsonaro government really pivot toward the U.S. and toward Trump?

WINTER: There would probably be more alignment with the United States under Flavio Bolsonaro, especially on security – there, there’s no doubt. But on economics, it’s more complicated for Brazil because China has been their No. 1 trading partner for several years now. It’s the market that receives most of their soy and iron ore and many of the other commodities that they produce.

And there’s a track record here. Flavio Bolsonaro’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, when he was president from 2018 to 2022, he talked a big anti-China game during his campaign. But once he got into office, many people, including Brazil’s agricultural lobby, prevailed on him to kind of leave the status quo in place. Daniel Noboa, the president of Ecuador, also a very strong U.S. ally, just made a state visit to China. Leaders have been hesitant to choose between Washington and Beijing, no matter their ideological orientation.

KAHN: And finally, do you see Brazil’s place in the world changing depending on who becomes the next leader?

WINTER: Look, Brazil is an important country. It’s the world’s sixth-biggest country by population. It has so much in terms of natural resources. It’s home to about two-thirds of the Amazon, the world’s biggest rainforest. That’s critical to everybody on the planet. It’s also true that under President Lula deforestation has fallen sharply. So that’s important.

Lula, when he was reelected, he had grand plans to help mediate peace deals, including in the Middle East and with Ukraine. None of those obviously came to pass. So, you know, I think under either leader, I think we’ll see a Brazil that continues to be important at bodies like the United Nations, the G20 and elsewhere.

KAHN: Well, thank you so much for your time. We’ve been speaking with Brian Winter. He’s the editor in chief of Americas Quarterly and is the author of several books about Brazil. Thank you so much, Brian.

WINTER: Always a pleasure. Thank you.

ELISSA NADWORNY, HOST:

That was Carrie Kahn in Rio de Janeiro, who has been covering the Brazilian election.

(SOUNDBITE OF HERMANOS GUTIERREZ’S “LOW SUN”)

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