Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints 'Monday Night Football' betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props

LSU has won multiple national championships in football, including one with arguably the best team in college football history.

The Saints won Super Bowl XLIV, which, given their prior history, was something many in Louisiana and the rest of the football world might have thought would never happen.

That said, Sept. 25, 2006 might be the single greatest game – and sports moment – in the history of the state.

When Steve Gleason blocked a punt, and Curtis Deloatch recovered it in the end zone for the first touchdown, it was lucky that the rebuilt Superdome – shelter to many during Hurricane Katrina – didn’t have the roof blown off of it.

On Monday night, New Orleans will celebrate that indelible night, and the energy will be rafter-height for the Saints battle with the archrival Falcons. And if vibes were the only thing that mattered in handicapping football, the opening line of Saints -2.5 would be the easiest call of all time.

But, they’re not.

So much so, that money has come in on the Falcons to take the line down to -1.5.

Here is my betting preview for the Falcons-Saints “Monday Night Football” game.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 47.5)

With all the energy that should be in the Superdome, why is there any market interest in the Falcons, let alone at under a field goal?

The easy answer is Atlanta’s impressive road win at Lambeau Field last Thursday night, where the offense and its weapons (that weren’t utilized much in the first two games), finally had some pop. The Falcons’ defense also looked stout, dissuading the Packers from running (eight total carries) and tormenting Jordan Love once Green Bay’s offense had to be one-dimensional.

The concern for Atlanta is that while the offense has found some life, there’s no way to know what to make of a defense that’s faced the Steelers (25th in adjusted Success Rate), Panthers (24th) and Packers (27th), and is missing key pieces it was expected to have on the roster this season: James Pearce (eight-game suspension), Jalon Walker (out for season) and A.J. Terrell (injured reserve). Plus, with Divine Deablo — the core of the defense — questionable with a hamstring issue, the Falcons could be even thinner.

The Saints know injuries. Kaden Elliss and Carl Granderson are already out, and Pete Werner has a neck problem making him questionable, after playing just 19 snaps last week when the Saints allowed the Raiders’ first 30-point game in years.

The market interest could also be a fade of New Orleans’ four-turnover fourth quarter, which cost the Saints last week’s game with Las Vegas. Losing left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. (in Week 2) might have been the root of the issue, as Maxx Crosby and the Raiders pressured Tyler Shough more frequently than the Saints’ previous opponents. Plus, New Orleans RB Travis Etienne is also on the IR.

Bet Falcons-Saints over 47.5 points at sportsbooks right now

Maybe that hurts the Saints’ offense in the long run, but against a thin Falcons D, it might be less likely to show up, especially at home. Instead, it could cause occasional problems, like more turnovers than there otherwise might be.

Unless they’re blocked – like 20 years ago – punts lead to “unders,” but turnovers lead to short fields and, potentially, defensive touchdowns for not-so-reputedly-stingy defenses.

With the total not asking too much of two quarterbacks who aren’t afraid to let it rip, and Bijan Robinson capable of taking it to the house from deep, let’s bet the energy in the building translates to points.

Bet: Over 47.5 total points (-115)

Michael Penix’s passing attempts over/under vs. the Saints is quite high.

(AP Photo/Matt Ludtke)

Player props

Michael Penix Jr. under 30.5 pass attempts (+100, FanDuel)

Think of this less as a bet against Penix Jr., and more on the idea that the Falcons will:

Commit to the run with Robinson in a boisterous environment in a closely-lined game
Get their yardage in chunks with Robinson and deep shots

After all, the Falcons scored 35 points in Green Bay on just 25 Penix Jr. attempts.

Zachariah Branch over 4.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115, Bet365)

The rookie out of Georgia missed Week 1 (most of the Falcons’ offense did), but in a span of five days Zachariah Branch was targeted twice in each of their two games. Two of his three catches went for at least 7 yards. With Falcons offensive coordinator Tommy Rees having had some extra time ahead of this game, we’ll use the “rushing and receiving” market in case there’s a rushing play in the gameplan for Branch.

Juwan Johnson over 3.5 receptions (-111, DraftKings)

Shough loves throwing to tight ends, as evidenced by the four TD passes that went to Johnson and Noah Fant last week, and their 31 total targets in three games so far this season.

Even including the half-game that Shough played in coming in for Spencer Rattler last season, Johnson had at least receptions in eight of the 10 where Shough played significantly, and in two of three this season.

Anytime TD scorers

WR Drake London (+130, Bet365)

Happy to have his quarterback back, London did everything but score last week when he tallied nine receptions for 194 yards.

It continued a trend showing that he’s a favorite target of Penix Jr. (while Kyle Pitts’ production went up when Kirk Cousins was in for him after the injury last season).

Before Penix Jr. went out with the ACL tear, London had scored in 12 of 25 games for a hit-rate of 48%. Since +130 is implied odds of 43.5%, there’s some value in taking London, whose one score without Penix Jr. throwing it to him last season came in his only game against the Saints.

WR Olamide Zaccheaus (+750, DraftKings)

For someone as well-traveled as Zaccheaus is (back with Atlanta after seasons in Chicago, Washington and Philadelphia), his eight touchdowns in the past three seasons tell us that teams want him, and like using him as a surprise attack in the red zone.

Snaps near the goal line weren’t exactly plentiful in Week 1 and 2 – since the Falcons were never inside the 20 – but with the offense back to normal, Zaccheaus is a good long-shot option to score.

WR Devaughn Vele (+230, DraftKings)

The tight ends did virtually all the scoring for the Saints last week, which should make for a glowing red flag in Atlanta’s preparation for New Orleans this week, but there’s another big red-zone target on the offense – the 6-foot-5 Devaughn Vele, who has had a pass sent his way in each of the Saints’ three games this season.

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With a hole at corner for Atlanta, and double-teams the probable plan for Chris Olave, we’ll go with the No. 2 receiver to score a home touchdown.

RB Kendre Miller (+270, FanDuel)

With Etienne out, uncertainty abounds in the Saints’ backfield, and the assumption in the betting market seems to be that the veteran, Alvin Kamara, is the next RB up, but we don’t know that for sure. Especially around the goal line.

Kamara (+120) has always been an excellent pass-catcher, but at 31, you could see where he’s used on the way to the end zone, but the bigger Miller, who scored in Week 1 (and then missed Week 2 with a minor injury), gets a carry or two to finish a drive.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russellat THE WINDOW.

Source: sports.yahoo.com