If people vote with their feet by leaving a country, then a superpower delivers its own verdict by withdrawing its bombers.
The sudden departure of all 12 US Air Force B-1s from RAF Fairfordexactly a week after five mysterious arrests near the base, will inevitably be seen as an extraordinary vote of no-confidence in Britain. When was the last time that the US pulled back its bombers under these circumstances from a peaceful allied country that is thousands of miles from any war zone?
The US is effectively saying: “We do not trust Britain to make an RAF base in Gloucestershire secure enough for some of our most important military assets.”
True enough, the B-1s were not permanently based at Fairford, but were temporarily stationed there as part of the campaign against Iran. They were always going to fly home at some point. Most of the time, there are no bombers of this kind deployed at this base. Open-source reporting suggests that the US may slowly be reducing the air power arrayed against Iran.
But the idea that the departure from RAF Fairford was a normal rotation – perhaps brought forward as a precaution – does not square with the facts reported by the US media. Some of the departed B-1s had only arrived in Britain last week. They left in such a hurry that the US scrambled refuelling tankers to see them safely home.
For now, the most plausible explanation is that US commanders believed there was an imminent threat to the base, which they were less than completely confident in the ability of the British authorities to handle.
Two consequences follow from these events. We do not know what the men arrested near Fairford on September 27 – and now out on bail – were or were not planning, although Andy Burnham says that Iran was involved.
Whatever the truth, the fact that the B-1s have flown home is a resounding success for Iran. Just the threat of an attack on the base has been enough to cause the US to withdraw its most powerful strike aircraft. That has also driven a wedge between Britain and the US, exposing how the latter does not fully trust the former to deal with the danger.
The second consequence goes wider. With Russia posing an ever greater peril, Britain is striving to keep the US committed to the defence of Europe. That means retaining – and preferably strengthening – the superpower’s military presence on the Continent.
In fairness, the US retains a substantial weight of air power in the United Kingdom, including the most advanced F35 fighter jets and critical force enablers such as air-to-air tankers.
But the spectacle of US bombers suddenly going home sends its own message. Even worse, their departure coincides with the Pentagon reassessing all American military deployments in Europe, with reports suggesting that withdrawals are being considered. If Britain, supposedly the US’s closest ally, might not be considered safe enough for 12 B-1s in all conditions, could that affect the wider review of the US military posture?
It is up to British securocrats, who continually tell us how capable our intelligence services are, to demonstrate they can get on top of the threat. The receding roar of departing US bombers shows our most powerful ally is yet to be convinced.
Source: www.telegraph.co.uk
