Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost

But winning a majority is no easy task for the Democrats.

They need to keep hold of their seat in Michigan, where polls suggest the race is tighter than Democrats would like between Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing political outsider, and his Republican rival Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent.

And they would also need to pick up seats in states that Trump won by double-digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.

But polls suggest they have a chance, even in Texas where former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the current state attorney general and close Trump ally.