Buckle your seatbelts and keep all hands and feet inside the vehicle, because earnings season is back. Starting on Tuesday, Q3 earnings will properly get underway, led by the major Bulge Bracket banks throughout the week before the playing field opens up to other sectors as we get deeper into October. Kicking off earnings week,
Buckle your seatbelts and keep all hands and feet inside the vehicle, because earnings season is back.
Starting on Tuesday, Q3 earnings will properly get underway, led by the major Bulge Bracket banks throughout the week before the playing field opens up to other sectors as we get deeper into October.
Kicking off earnings week, investors on Tuesday will get results from JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citi (C) on Wall Street, while UnitedHealth (UNH) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) will provide a view on the state of the healthcare trade.
Rounding out the Big Banks on Wednesday will be Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS), joined by alternative asset giant BlackRock (BLK) and Dutch AI manufacturing giant ASML (ASML).
In another check on the AI trade, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) will report on Thursday.
It’s also a big week on the economic data front, where Wednesday’s consumer inflation data is set to be a major factor for the Federal Reserve’s decision on rates in the FOMC’s upcoming October meeting. Investors will also get the wholesale inflation check with the Producer Price Index report on Thursday, along with readings on industrial production and manufacturing activity on Friday.
The market wants to hear what Big Banks think about soaring yields
When the biggest banks on Wall Street begin reporting earnings this week, they’ll be coming off the back of one of their best periods within the past 10 years. Or at least they would’ve been, had a mix of factors not sent yields soaring to multi-decade highs.
As JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Citigroup (C) kick things off — with Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) to follow on Wednesday — all eyes will be on how the money titans talk about the impact of higher interest rates.
After the booming past few quarters of major windfalls for the banks, profits are expected to pull back on a quarterly basis, alongside revenues from trading and investment banking, per analyst estimates — though they should by and large still see a profit on the year.
Over the past month, Financial Services (XLF) was the second-worst performing sector in the S&P 500, losing roughly 4% — good to beat out only Utilities (XLU) on the worst return. As of Friday’s market close, the five major banks have lost roughly $270 billion in market cap as the financial sector has suffered.
Looking forward, only 35% of institutional investors expect bank stocks to outperform the broader market, down from 68% in July and 82% in December, per a study from Truist Securities.
Take Goldman Sachs. Activity in the fixed income, currencies, and commodities trading at the bank “has been a little bit softer” relative to the year-ago period, CEO David Solomon said at a conference hosted by Barclays in late September.
Morgan Stanley co-president Daniel Simkowitz summed it up aptly at the event, offering investors a preview of what to expect this week: “I think it’s safe to say 3Q is no 2Q.”
JPMorgan Chase chair and CEO Jamie Dimon speaks during the Reagan National Defense Forum at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., on Dec. 6, 2025. (Reuters/Jonathan Alcorn) ·REUTERS / REUTERS
Wednesday’s inflation reading may decide the next Fed move
If there were one word to define 2026 for the US economy — other than “AI” — it might just be “inflation.”
Largely since the war in Iran began in late February, the run-up in prices for gasoline, food, computer parts, semiconductors, and a host of other goods has been front and center for US consumers as the country makes its way through five years of above-target inflation.
With no pricing relief in sight and 20-plus year highs on US Treasury yields despite the rate hike, investor attention quickly swung ahead to October, and for good reason. September’s Summary of Economic Projections — the so-called dot plot — showed that a majority of FOMC voting members saw the need for at least one more quarter-point hike this year, with four members calling for 50 more basis points’ worth of hikes.
The September Consumer Price Index report, due Wednesday, is set to be a deciding factor in whether 25 more basis points of tightening monetary policy comes in October or waits until December.
“While still above the pace consistent with the Fed’s 2% target, the print may not be strong enough to materially shift market expectations toward an Oct rate hike following recent dovish remarks from Fed officials,” Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau wrote to clients on Thursday.
To his point, recent FedSpeak comments from members, including NY Fed president John Williams, have suggested that some prominent officials see room to wait-and-see in October, with no need to rush into another hike. That said, traders are pricing in roughly 80% odds that the Fed will raise rates in October.
New York Federal Reserve President John C. Williams speaks to the Economic Club of New York on Sept. 4, 2025. (Reuters/Kylie Cooper/File Photo) ·Reuters / REUTERS
The telecom wars return, thanks to Elon Musk
If you were wondering which major industry Elon Musk was planning to disrupt next, look no further than the telecommunications sector.
Stock prices of major cell carriers fell through the tail end of the week after SpaceX (SPCX) announced it reached an agreement to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio.
Verizon (VZ) stock fell 5% on Friday, while AT&T (T) stock dropped by nearly 7% and T-Mobile (TMUS) stock declined by more than 6% as the announcement stoked concerns that Starlink would disrupt the wireless telecom space.
Starlink has established itself as the leading player in satellite communications technology, but the consumer telecom space (i.e., the cell coverage network) is a new venture. SpaceX purchased a spectrum portfolio of up to 14 megahertz of paired spectrum in the 800 MHz band from Grain Management, an investment firm.
During the company’s earnings call in August, SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell said Starlink planned to build a terrestrial wireless network and go after Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile’s customers. She said SpaceX also plans to launch its second generation of Starlink Mobile satellites in 2027.
“I anticipate us to be able to acquire quite a few of their [AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile’s] customers because I think our service will be better,” Shotwell said on the earnings call.
The SpaceX Starship and Super Heavy v3 Booster lift off on its 14th test flight from the SpaceX launch complex in Starbase, Texas, on Sept. 28, 2026. The mission deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. (Reuters/Steve Nesius/File Photo) ·Reuters / REUTERS
Economic and earnings calendar
Monday
Economic data: No economic data due to the holiday.
Earnings calendar: No notable earnings.
Tuesday
Economic data: NFIB small business optimism, September (98 expected, 98.7 prior); ADP weekly employment change, week ended Sept. 26 (+23,750 prior); Existing home sales, month-on-month, September (-0.8% expected, -2% prior)
Economic data: MBA mortgage applications, week ended Oct. 9 (-4.2% prior); CPI, month-on-month, September (+0.6% expected, +0.4% prior); Core CPI, month-on-month, September (+0.2% expected, +0.3% prior); CPI, year-on-year, September (+3.6% expected, +3.4% prior); Core CPI, year-on-year, September (+2.5% expected, +2.4% prior); Real average weekly earnings, year-on-year, September (+0.4% prior); Real average hourly earnings, year-on-year, September (-0.3% prior); Fed releases Beige Book
Earnings calendar: ASML (ASML), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK), The Progressive Corporation (PGR), Fastenal Company (FAST), State Street Corporation (STT)
Thursday
Economic data: Retail sales advance, month-on-month, September (+0.3% expected, +1.1% prior); Retail sales ex auto, month-on-month, September (+0.5% expected, +1.3% prior); Empire manufacturing, October (7.6 prior); Philadelphia Fed business outlook, October (26.4 expected, 37.8 prior); Initial jobless claims, week ended Oct. 10 (197,000 prior); Continuing claims, week ended Oct. 3 (1.716 million prior); PPI final demand, month-on-month, September (+0.5% expected, +0.4% prior); PPI ex food and energy, month-on-month, September (+0.3% expected, +0.2% prior); PPI final demand, year-on-year, September (+5.3% expected, +5.4% prior); PPI ex food and energy, year-on-year, September (+4.4% expected, +4.6% prior); Business inventories, August (+0.4% expected, +0.8% prior)
Earnings calendar: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Prologis (PLD), BNY Mellon (BNY), US Bancorp (USB), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Marsh & McLennan (MRSH), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT), Alcoa (AA)
Friday
Economic data: New York Fed services business activity, October (-8.7 prior); Import price index, month-on-month, September (+0.6% expected, +0.7% prior); Export price index, month-on-month, September (+1% expected, +0.6% prior); Industrial production, month-on-month, September (+0.4% expected, +0% prior); Manufacturing production, month-on-month, September (+0.3% expected, -0.3% prior)
Earnings calendar: The Travelers Companies (TRV), Truist Financial (TFC)
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