He Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered a monthly variation of 0.4% in Septemberaccumulating 4% during 2026 and 4.1% in 12 months. According to the National Institute of Statistics (INE), eight of the 13 divisions of the basket presented positive incidents.
Among the categories that contributed the most to the result were food and non-alcoholic beverages, with an increase of 0.6%, and transportation, which advanced 0.9%. In contrast, insurance and financial services recorded a drop of 5.9%.
Maximiliano Villalobosresearcher at the Center for Financial Studies of the ESE Business School of the University of the Andes (Uandes), explains that the figure was slightly below the prevailing expectation among analysts. “Although it constitutes a downward surprise, for a relevant part of the market the result was within what was expected, because they had already incorporated this level of variation”, he points out.
What explains the September CPI?
According to Villalobos, around 86% of the monthly movement was concentrated in food and non-alcoholic beverages, transportation, and housing and basic services. The first group had a special impact on vegetables such as potatoes, carrots, tomatoes and lettuce; while in the other two gasoline, diesel and electricity stood out.
In the case of agricultural products, the researcher observes a correlation with the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon registered since September, although he warns that this alone does not allow establishing a causal relationship. “Climatic factors are fundamental for agricultural activity, but also for other sectors, such as forestry, fishing and even mining.”, he claims.
The pressure on energy prices responds, according to Villalobos, to a different factor. The economist links it with the reactivation of military activities in the Middle East, particularly with the conflict between the United States and Iran.. For Chile, he adds, the impact is especially important due to its dependence on imported fossil fuels, whose higher costs can be transmitted from transportation to different productive activities. The Central Bank has also identified the value of fuels as a relevant impact on the recent trajectory of inflation.
This same channel helps to understand, in the opinion of the Uandes researcher, part of the behavior of electricity. Although more than half of the national generation comes from renewable sources, it explains that a relevant proportion still depends on fossil fuels, so international variations in these inputs can impact the costs of the system.
How much could the UF increase?
One of the most direct effects for households will be observed in the Development Unit. Villalobos estimates that, as a result of the September CPI, the UF will increase approximately $160 between October 10 and November 9readjustment that will be distributed daily during that period.
“This has a number of implications for households.particularly in those commitments denominated in UF, such as credits, tuition, insurance and health plans, among others,” he explains.
The result also draws attention once again to the upcoming decisions of the Central Bank. In its September Report, the agency projected that total inflation would remain slightly above 4% towards the end of 2026 and would approach 3% during the second quarter of 2027.while the trajectory of the Monetary Policy Rate will continue to be evaluated meeting by meeting.
Villalobos takes a more cautious perspective on possible cuts. “I would not expect a reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate in the next meetings, neither in October nor in December, and most likely not for much of next year either.“, he states. In his opinion, if a new cycle of cuts begins, the most likely scenario would be towards the end of 2027 or the beginning of 2028, also conditioned by the evolution of external tensions that currently put pressure on energy costs.
Press Team
Portal Innova
Source: portalinnova.cl
